The Eagles certainly can win this game, but it will require a mistake-minimizing effort that we haven’t seen against a conference opponent this year. BC cut down on penalties last week, but turned the ball over five times and had seven dropped passes. Turnovers have become a great equalizer for BC opponents this season. BC has turned the ball over 11 times in conference games while ACC opponents have given it up just 5 times. It is very surprising that a team as physical as BC is –6 in the turnover department. Virginia Tech might be due for some turnovers. The Hokies have fumbled 12 times this year, but have only lost one (compared with BC’s 9 fumbles and 6 lost). This game promises to be a defensive struggle so turnovers and blocked kicks will be magnified.

If BC avoids big mistakes, they won’t be out of the woods by any stretch. The Eagles will need to establish a running game early and stay with it for four quarters. As I said, a good running game will force the Tech secondary to tighten and slow down the pass rush. It is also to BC’s advantage to keep Marcus Vick off of the field, not because this year's Virginia Tech offense is prolific but because (a) the defense will expend a lot of energy chasing Vick around the field and (b) Mathias Kiwanuka, if he plays, will probably be limited to a specific number of snaps. The fewer offensive plays that Tech runs, the fewer plays that the BC defense will be without Kiwanuka.

Defensively, I think BC will be very successful. This BC defense is much faster than the one that Marcus Vick’s brother Michael shredded in 2000. The Eagles must force Vick to beat them with his arm, not his legs. BC’s ability to do this will depend a lot on Kiwanuka’s health. The BC defense must continue its great success on third down. Opponents have converted only 30% of their third down opportunities into first downs (23% in the second half and overtime). BC opponents have rarely driven more than 60 yards this season. Most of the points the Eagles have allowed in conference play have resulted from turnovers and blocked punts in BC territory. It is critical that the Eagles not allow Tech's speedy receivers, especially Clowney, to get behind them.

For all intents and purposes, Boston College lost the Florida State game in the first five minutes and nearly lost the Wake Forest game in the first quarter. BC cannot afford to start slow as they have in many big games in the past five or six years. Virginia Tech has outscored their opponents 55-7 in the first quarter this season. They will be fired up for this game and so will the capacity crowd at Lane Stadium. If BC can weather the first quarter storm, they have a very good chance to win this game. If not, this could be a blowout. I've been impressed with BC's ability to win in tough situations on the road over the past three years (Virginia Tech in 2003, West Virginia in 2004, Clemson this year) so I don't think the Lane Stadium crowd will intimidate BC but they will help the home team. I am predicting a close Virginia Tech victory on Thursday for three reasons: (a) home field advantage (b) special teams and (c) BC injuries.