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Boston College - Florida State Matchup
Boston College (5-1) and Florida State (4-2) will meet on Saturday in a crucial ACC Atlantic Division
battle. The Eagles, who are coming off their most impressive game of the year, will look to avenge
last year's 28-17 loss to the Seminoles in Chestnut Hill. Florida State is struggling by their lofty
standards. The Noles are currently in fifth place in the ACC Atlantic and only 5-6 in their last eleven
games dating back to last season. FSU was impressive last week in a 51-24 victory over Duke. The key to
the game may very well be Matt Ryan. BC's junior quarterback is now suffering from both foot and
ankle problems and is listed as questionable for Saturday's game.
The Quarterbacks |
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Matt Ryan -- 59.5% comp, 1,399 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT |
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Drew Weatherford -- 61.1% comp, 1,195 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT |
Top Rushers |
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L.V. Whitworth -- 381 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD |
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Andre Callender -- 296 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD |
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Antone Smith -- 309 yards, 5.9 ypc, 3 TD |
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Lorenzo Booker -- 278 yards, 4.7 ypc, 1 TD |
Top Receivers |
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Kevin Challenger (WR) -- 24 catches, 281 yards, 4 TD |
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Tony Gonzalez (WR) -- 22 catches, 241 yards, 4 TD |
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Brandon Robinson (WR) -- 14 catches, 196 yards, 0 TD |
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De'Cody Fagg (WR) -- 24 catches, 286 yards, 1 TD |
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Greg Carr (WR) -- 14 catches, 268 yards, 6 TD |
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Chris Davis (WR) -- 13 catches, 189 yards, 2 TD |
Top Defenders |
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Jolonn Dunbar (LB) -- 47 tackles, 1 forced fumble |
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Jamie Silva (FS) -- 30 tackles, 5 TFL, 1 INT |
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DeJuan Tribble (CB) -- 23 tackles, 2 INT, 5 passes broken up |
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Buster Davis (LB) -- 57 tackles, 4 for lost yardage |
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Geno Hayes (LB) -- 29 tackles, 3 sacks |
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Lawrence Timmons (LB) -- 26 tackles, 2 sacks |
The Kickers |
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Steve Aponavicius -- 2/2 FG, 2/2 PAT |
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Gary Cismesia -- 8/9 FG, 19/20 PAT |
The Punters |
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Johnny Ayers -- 40.9 yards per punt |
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Graham Gano -- 39.2 yards per punt |
The Kick Returners |
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Jeff Smith -- 34.1 per KO return DeJuan Tribble -- 5.9 per punt return |
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Joslin Shaw -- 19.2 yards per KO ret Chris Davis -- 6.6 yards per punt return |
Final Analysis
If Matt Ryan plays on Saturday, I believe we'll see yet another ACC Atlantic Division game decided in
the final five minutes. Statistically, BC and Florida State are fairly similar. The BC offense is ranked
82nd nationally on the ground and 33rd through the air. FSU's rankings in those areas are 84th and 34th.
Matt Ryan and Drew Weatherford both have thrown for 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. BC's top
receiver, Kevin Challenger, has 24 receptions for 281 yards. FSU's top pass catcher, De'Cody Fagg, has
24 receptions for 286 yards. Defensively, both Boston College and Florida State have been strong against
the run (FSU is ranked 11th in the nation, BC is 22nd). The main statistical difference lies in the
pass defense. FSU's ranking is a mediocre 53rd while BC's ranking is a miserable 102nd.
There are a few areas where BC appears to have the advantage. The Eagles have sacked opposing
quarterbacks 14 times this season while only being sacked 6 times. Florida State has the same number
of sacks as sacks allowed (10). The Seminoles have been penalized 2 more times per game than the
Eagles (FSU ranks 12th in the nation in penalties per game). Florida State ranks 101st in the nation
in opponent kickoff return average (BC ranks 7th in kickoff return average). On the other side of
the coin, Florida State kicker Gary Cismesia has made 8 of 9 field goal attempts this season and
32 of 42 in his career (76%). Boston College kicker Steve Aponavicius is a walk-on who will be
playing in only his second game (Ryan Ohliger will be back in uniform and will handle the kickoffs).
Whether Matt Ryan plays or not, the Eagles are going to have to establish a running attack. If Ryan
plays, his mobility will be limited so the Eagles will want to reduce the number of times he is forced
to run around in, or out of, the pocket. If Chris Crane is forced into action, the Eagles will need to
run the ball effectively to avoid putting the inexperienced sophomore in difficult third and long situations. The tight ends
are going to have to play a larger role for BC.
It will be very interesting to see how the Eagles play on the defensive side of the ball. After
looking terrible for most of the early season, the BC defense was dominant in the second half
of the Virginia Tech game. It has left me wondering if that effort was an aberration or if this young
defense has gelled. I believe it is more the latter. Florida State can be explosive offensively
but they haven't shown much of that against good teams this season. The Seminoles have averaged
just 242 yards per game and 2.1 yards per carry this season against Miami, Clemson and NC State.
As I mentioned above, special teams is a mixed bag. The statistics tell me that Jeff Smith
could break off a big kickoff return or two. Then again, this Bowden is probably smart enough not
to kick the ball to the BC speedster. Steve Aponavicius did an outstanding job last week but no one can
deny that Florida State has a gigantic advantage in the field goal department. In a game that has a
good chance to go down to the wire, that is not good news for BC.
Prediction: Florida State 27 Boston College 24
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FSU by the Numbers
FSU Head Coach Bobby Bowden ranks #1 on the all-time
Division 1-A coaching victory list with 362.
FSU was 56-1 at home in the 1990s and 32-7 since 2000.
FSU is 55-3 all-time in ACC games at home, but 1-2 in
their last three ACC home games.
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Statistic |
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Offense - Run |
82 |
84 |
Offense - Pass |
33 |
34 |
Offense - Total |
56 |
60 |
Defense - Run |
22 |
11 |
Defense - Pass |
102 |
53 |
Defense - Total |
66 |
20 |
Offensive Lines |
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Avg Height |
6'4" |
6'5" |
Avg Weight |
306 |
305 |
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